About Me 0072: Who's Making Money

Wednesday Worries – Ireland “Fixed” – Who’s Next?

Courtesy of Phil at Phil's Stock World

So many things are pissing me off today.

I got my political outrage out of the way in my earlier post: "Thanks for the Gas Money, Mr. President," so we don't need to talk about that again. Ireland, as of 7:45, has not actually voted to accept the EU's deal, which will pull $20,000 per Irish family directly from national pension funds to pay for the speculative mistakes of Irish Banks. Additionally, the Irish people are being asked to borrow another $75,000 per family from the EU at about 6% interest, also to pay for the speculative mistakes made by the Irish Banks. While this may seem insane - it's only a drop in the bucket compared to what Americans are spending to bail out our own speculators so why shouldn't they join the club?

At least Ireland gets to vote for their obligations, we have a Federal Reserve System where a single man, known as "The Bernank" is able to spend what is now heading towards $3.5Tn of OUR MONEY to bail out his banking buddies. That's $31,818 per American family spent over two years IN ADDITION to the stuff I complained about Obama and our spineless Government spending in the last post.

As I said, things are pissing me off today! I should be in a better mood - we had a fabulous day trading in Member Chat yesterday. In yesterday's post, I closed with "One last stab at making some bearish profits for us (see Morning Alert)" and you can click on that Alert, which was posted on Seeking Alpha and check out our trade ideas for the $10,000 to $50,000 Portfolio which included (at 7:22 am yesterday) QID Jan $10 calls, which opened at $1.80 and finished at $2 (up 11%), DIA Dec $114 puts, which opened at .80 and finished at $1.33 (up 66%), XRT Jan $44 puts, which opened at .35 and finished at .55 (up 57%), USO Jan $36 puts, which opened at .66 and finished at .90 (up 36%), PCLN weekly $400 puts, which opened at $.50 and finished at $1.40 (up 180%) and NFLX Jan $155 puts, which opened at $1.70 and finished at $2.30 (up 35%) but should look much better this morning, where we will exit.

Of course I featured the idea to short NFLX last Thursday in the Morning Post (which you would get at 8:30 every morning in progress if you subscribed!) and we talked about shorting oil in the Weekend Post and I mentioned XRT last week as well so it's not like these are even our "super-secret" trade ideas - this is just the stuff that looked obvious enough to risk our small portfolio plays on (as you don't want to take too much risk in a small portfolio, even when it is aggressive like our virtual $10,000 Portfolio). Once we got into Member Chat for the morning we went with more aggressive trade ideas like PCLN weekly $410 puts at $1.60, which finished the day at $4.20 (up 162%) and 6 other plays that we're not done with yet plus shorts on the oil futures at $90 that worked out very well.

So why am I angry? You can't really have a better day than we had yesterday. Yesterday is the reason we have sat patiently (well kind of patiently) in cash for a month as we finally got an opportunity to commit to a whole bunch of very obvious trades, the most trade ideas I've had in a single day since early September, when we jumped on Uncle Ben's bullish bandwagon. Sure we find things to trade every day but these are the opportunities we wait for. I guess I'm pissed because we had to pull our December short plays off the table because the cartoon bears have warned us that they will be "Buying the F'ing Dips" and we know better than to argue with cartoon bears because it's simplistic little BS premises like that that rule this market. Ah, that's why I'm angry!

As I keep saying, I don't enjoy day trading - it's not satisfying but it's what we do while we wait for real investment opportunities to come along. While it may be exciting to make 100% on a trade in a single day - it's small money and a tedious (and stressful) way to build up a portfolio. I suppose at heart, I'm a long-term investing coupon-clipper but those kind of investors are being chewed up and spit out in this market and, while we found many, many things to buy earlier in the year, now we're down to one or two long-term opportunities a day while most of the rest of the market looks better as a short.

But you can't even stay short past the closing bell. Even as I write this post our paranoia in taking the money and running (our usual strategy) on our quick gains is looking justified as the dollar is, as usual, being shoved off it's overnight highs (used to prop up the Nikkei in our famous "3am Trade") during the slower EU lunch break in order to now goose the US futures to give US markets the best possible open on the least possible amount of volume (ergo cost to the Gang of 12). Despite debasement efforts by Obama and The Bernank yesterday, the dollar still rose back to 80.81 in overnight trading and that sent the Dow futures all the way down to 11,285 but don't despair - they've already been goosed back to 11,350 - just 5 points shy of yesterday's weak close.

See, in a "normal" market we would have simply stayed short because clearly the momentum was down and the fundamentals indicate that all the efforts of Obama, The Bernank, the BOJ, the BOC, the ECB... are "too little, too late" to put the Humpty Dumpty global economy back together again. Some of the fundamentals we're watching:

German exports declined in October

Machinery orders fell in Japan for October.

Speculators are holding the largest commodity positions on record, up 13% from 2008 highs.

Oil is in a GLUT, with demand off a cliff.

Mortgage Applications are falling again.

15 US States face a $26.7Bn mid-year budget gap.

The EU is passing tough banking regulations.

Our Government is expanding the insider trading investigation.

China is likely to hike interest rates.

Mortgage Bond yields have leaped to 6-month highs.

Italy's budget plan is forcing a "no-confidence" vote for Berlusconi.

US Retailers are cutting earnings forecasts and sitting on big inventories.

These are just TODAY'S headlines and they all add up to RISK. Lack of risk recognition by the markets was the primary reason I called for cash in early November. We are approaching 2008 pre-crash market highs with many stock trading higher than they were then on LESS revenues than they had at the time. Meanwhile, 10% of our population is unemployed, consumer credit is down by over $1,000,000,000 (15%), household wealth is down 20% and income is down while the CPI, even by BS Government measures, is up 5% since then, effectively giving those people who still have jobs 5% less to spend anyway.

And when you consider that discretionary income is just 20% of income - if the 80% they HAVE to spend went up 5%, then that's 4% of discretionary income gone, which is 20% of discretionary income out the window - FOR THE PEOPLE WHO ARE STILL WORKING. The other 10% have ZERO to spend and that's not good either. All of this is being ignored as "investors" buy stocks on the hopes that they will expand sales internationally and keep cutting costs despite the same inflation the speculators are using to justify their very high valuations. We're effectively writing off the US economy and placing all of our bullish eggs in the global basket - even though they have 20% unemployment "over there." - that's kind of nuts, don't you think?

I'm not even going to ask if the above
chart (from Calculated Risk) disturbs you

. Clearly, from the results of the last election, it does not. We are over 6M jobs away from recovery and we added less than 40,000 last month. At least in Ireland, their population is shrinking, with 65,500 people (1.5%) abandoning the sinking ship as of April of this year. That's less likely to happen in America as Mexico is not that attractive and Canada doesn't want us and most people can't afford to move anyway as they are upside down on their mortgages so we, as a people, sit and wait. We sit and wait for something good to happen. Any minute now... Something good is bound to happen... NOW! OK, maybe not now but really soon - something good has got to happen, right?

That pretty much sums up our national policy - we don't actually do anything to create jobs but if we sprinkle enough magical fairy money on the rich, we're sure they'll start hiring people real soon! Maybe as soon as they are done merging and acquiring smaller companies with all that money where they then create efficiencies by laying off 50,000 people a month (Challenger Job Cut Report) while more and more jobs are outsourced every day ($6Tn worth of jobs are currently outsourced). And why not? There are huge tax advantages to outsourcing US jobs - tax advantages that our President is perpetuating as he bends over and accepts the massive Republican tax cuts for the wealthy on behalf of the American people.

Did I mention I was pissed? Good, then moving along...

So we kept our Jan shorts and didn't add any longs because we expect a bounce on the usual opening nonsense but I don't see enough dry powder left for the bulls to take us over that critical Dow 11,500 mark. Meanwhile, CAT is way too high and they are a Dow component, as are XOM, CVX, IBM and MCD - all stocks that are major components in the price-weighted Dow and are more likely to pull back than move higher.

EU money printing will not inflate our stocks - it may even boost the Buck and that would be bad for commodities, who had a pretty rough day yesterday (and we shorted a few). I wish it were easier and I wish we could just say "CAT is overbought so we're going short" but the fundamentals of the stock are trumped by rumors of infinite Chinese demand and inflation expectations that somehow ignore the negative impact of rising steel prices and increasing borrowing costs on the company. Of course the weak-dollar expectations have everyone moving into stocks, which are just another form of commodity to trade and, even as I write this, the dollar is being jammed back below 80.50 to goose the US open.

At least we know how this game is rigged and we can have lots of fun betting the suckers never do find that red queen but what a shame that this is what the global economy has been reduced to - a shell game - and it's an empty shell at that!

This post was written by the Web Marketing Ninja — a professional online marketer for a major web brand, who’s sharing his tips undercover here at ProBlogger. Curious? So are we!

As online marketers, we often devote a large amount of time to finding ways to attract eyeballs to our online assets. We put such effort into simply get the readers there that we allow the rest to take care of itself. Money will flow, Ferraris will be purchased, and we can all retire nice and young…

Then we discover the concept of sales funnels.

You may already know what a sales funnel is, but if you don’t, let me quickly describe it for you.

A sales funnel is a simple map of your lead-to-sale process.

Let’s imagine you start with 1,000 leads (visitors to your web site).

100 might click on a sales page link for of one of your products.

50 might click your Order Now button and enter your shopping cart.

Ten complete the checkout process and buy the product.

So your sales funnel starts and 1,000 and ends in ten sales—that’s a 1% conversion.

That’s a bare-bones view of a sales funnel, but as you can see it takes four steps, not one, to increase the amount of sales your site delivers. If we put all our attention on attracting new visitors, we’re essentially forgetting 75% of the puzzle—and we’ve all done that.

But that’s not where online marketers go wrong!

It’s not hard to sell people the idea of the sales funnel—it’s simple to understand and easy to quantify. It’s also been around for a long time. Offline sales professionals have been using it for decades.

The problem with the sales funnel is that in the offline world it’s a simple and straightforward methodology, but in the online world, it’s not.

The image below is a quick process map I prepared for a Managing Director of a large retail operation, who’s focusing heavily on online strategy.

As you can see, that organization’s sales funnel is a lot more complicated than the simple four-step process I mentioned above. There are some key points I want to highlight in this map:

Seven different types of traffic that visit the site.

There are multiple behaviors that we need to analyse: what pages visitors view, how long they stay, the navigational path, and their user profiles (locations, browsers, etc.).

There’s a connection outcome, as well as a buy outcome.

A visitor can become a customer in a range of ways.

Now my idea of a funnel resembles something I use to fill my car with oil, and this looks nothing like it. This depiction reminds me more of the tubes game I play on my iPhone. In even more bad news, I made this process map in five minutes. The reality is that this business’s online sales funnel is probably twice as complicated!

The key to sales funnel success

The key to creating a more successful sales funnel is: step away from the keyboard. While I work in an office, I actually have a whiteboard in my house. I actually use it, and it’s better than any online tool I’ve seen for laying out the bare bones of a real, live sales funnel.

I start by detailing every single way people can enter the funnel, identifying where they have come from, what their persona is, and where they’re at in the purchase cycle.

Then, I identify every activity that someone can undertake on the site: read some content, read some more content, subscribe to a newsletter, view a social media profile, buy something, or exit the site.

Finally I detail the measures I can put on each activity: time on page, entry path, exit path, and so on.

Then I start connecting the dots and putting together all the different pathways a visitor can take thought my funnel. The key here is not to change anything about your site yet.

Putting theory into practice

Once the funnel is mapped, and the measures are in place, I start collating reports at every step. What I’m trying to do here is understand how my funnel works in practice, not in theory.

Try this on your blog. Once you’ve collated enough information to start making decisions, I guarantee there will be obvious points of failure in your process, and they’re likely to arise in two main areas:

a page that does a great job at encouraging a secondary behaviour (that is, rather than keeping someone in the sales funnel)

a page that fundamentally fails to move a customer to the next step in the funnel.

Initially, you’ll probably feel like there is a lot to do, so you’ll need to prioritize the changes you want to make. Focus on the areas that are costing you the most sales (which might actually be at the bottom end of your funnel).

With time, effort, and focus, you could see huge improvements in the performance of your site, without your having to attract one new visitor to your site. Sounds good to me!

Have you tweaked your sales funnel recently? What changes have worked best for you?

Stay tuned from most posts by the secretive Web Marketing Ninja—a professional online marketer for a major web brand, who’s sharing his tips undercover here at ProBlogger. Questions? Suggestions? Email him.

bench craft company scam

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Who's Making Money

Wednesday Worries – Ireland “Fixed” – Who’s Next?

The key to sales funnel success

Putting theory into practice

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